And there are two developments that influence this. Once is the shrinking availability of refund anticipation loans, which are in their last year with only Republic Bank offering them. In 2011, Republic halved the amount of money it lent for RALs and even a chain like Jackson Hewitt got only half its sites funding in the last tax season and this one. RALs were a mainstay of the independents and even though consumer lending may take the place of bank lending, they still must get through this season.

The other factor is the increased regulation by the Internal Revenue Service. The non-CPA preparers must undergo exams and in general anytime more requirements are added, a certain part of any business is going to decide the extra expense and effort are not worth it. And those who are able to obtain RALs for clients this year have additional oversight headaches.

During a conference call last year, an executive of one of the chains mentioned that the number of independents had exploded over the last few years. He also had the opinion that the new regulation would halt that trend and favor the chains. Fair or not, chances are he was right.